KEYWORDS: Earthquakes, Analytical research, Statistical analysis, Power grids, Monte Carlo methods, Simulations, Probability theory, Stochastic processes, Vibration, Transformers
In order to analyze quantitatively the seismic damage on disconnectors, a fragility curve is built by case investigation according to the statistical theory and simulations are carried out by Monte-Carlo method. The fragility curve describes the relationship between the earthquake impact level and the damage probability. A regional electric power grid with three substations is selected as an example to calculate the disconnectors damage probability under seismic magnitude M=6, 6.5, 7, 7.5 and 8. Earthquake occurrence is simulated by Monte-Carlo method. The results indicate that the damage probability increases with the increase of seismic magnitude. The damage probability for disconnectors in substation A is 0.14 approximately when M=6 while rises up to 0.30 approximately when M=8. In addition, the epicenter distance is another main parameter which determines the damage probability. The damage probability for disconnectors in substation A is higher than substation B and C under same seismic magnitude because of the smaller epicenter distance. This paper proposed a way to build fragility curve on the basic of statistical theory, and gives references to the risk analysis, damage control and emergency management.
In order to analyze the substation seismic risk quantitatively, Monte-Carlo method is carried out in a mathematical model building for substation seismic risk assessment. Monte-Carlo method is satisfied and applicable to simulate the earthquake parameters such as seismic center and seismic magnitude which is key factors for calculate the substation seismic risk on the basic of fragility curve. A substation is taken as an example, meanwhile 50000 earthquakes are generated under different seismic center and magnitude by Monte-Carlo method. The result indicates that the seismic risk increases with the increase of magnitude and the decrease of epicentral distance. When the seismic magnitude is less than six and the epicenter distance is more than 50 km, the substation seismic risk is relatively low. However, when the seismic magnitude raises greater than 7.5, the seismic risk rises rapidly. Finally, the seismic risk is greater than 30% regardless of the epicenter distance under the condition of seismic magnitude greater than eight. This paper provides a way for substation seismic risk assessment based on Monte-Carlo method, and gives references to the risk analysis, disaster prevention and emergency management on electric power system.
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