Research on the application of statistical theory and Monte-Carlo method on disconnector seismic damage analysis

Yiran Yan; Tianyu Wang; Zeyu Liu; Yuan Yao; Jie Feng; Zhen Yu

doi:10.1117/12.2686046

28 July 2023 Research on the application of statistical theory and Monte-Carlo method on disconnector seismic damage analysis

Yiran Yan, Tianyu Wang, Zeyu Liu, Yuan Yao, Jie Feng, Zhen Yu

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 12756, 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023); 127560H (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2686046
Event: 2023 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023), 2023, Tangshan, China

Abstract

In order to analyze quantitatively the seismic damage on disconnectors, a fragility curve is built by case investigation according to the statistical theory and simulations are carried out by Monte-Carlo method. The fragility curve describes the relationship between the earthquake impact level and the damage probability. A regional electric power grid with three substations is selected as an example to calculate the disconnectors damage probability under seismic magnitude M=6, 6.5, 7, 7.5 and 8. Earthquake occurrence is simulated by Monte-Carlo method. The results indicate that the damage probability increases with the increase of seismic magnitude. The damage probability for disconnectors in substation A is 0.14 approximately when M=6 while rises up to 0.30 approximately when M=8. In addition, the epicenter distance is another main parameter which determines the damage probability. The damage probability for disconnectors in substation A is higher than substation B and C under same seismic magnitude because of the smaller epicenter distance. This paper proposed a way to build fragility curve on the basic of statistical theory, and gives references to the risk analysis, damage control and emergency management.

Citation Download Citation

Yiran Yan, Tianyu Wang, Zeyu Liu, Yuan Yao, Jie Feng, and Zhen Yu "Research on the application of statistical theory and Monte-Carlo method on disconnector seismic damage analysis", Proc. SPIE 12756, 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023), 127560H (28 July 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2686046

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