Prediction of AIDS incidence based on grey model in Guangdong Province

Zhiqin Zhao; Sui-Zhi He

doi:10.1117/12.2639304

17 May 2022 Prediction of AIDS incidence based on grey model in Guangdong Province

Zhiqin Zhao, Sui-Zhi He

Proceedings Volume 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022); 122592Q (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2639304
Event: 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing, 2022, Kunming, China

Abstract

According to the HIV and AIDS infection and incidence data of Guangdong residents from 2011 to 2020, the GM (1,1) model of metabolism was established based on the grey system theory, and the results were calculated by Matlab: Q=0.0089≤0.01, mean square error ratio C=0.2765≤0.35, −= < a 0.0035 0.3 . The test accuracy of this model is level 1. The GM (1,1) metabolic model is used to predict the number of HIV and AIDS cases in Guangdong province in the next five years. The data results show that the number of HIV will decrease in the next five years and the overall level of ADIS will increase Using grey Verhulst model analysis AIDS deaths each year, the data is not saturated state, it is on the rise Reflect the Guangdong province AIDS prevention and control work in the future a long way to go Through the model analysis to predict the trend of disease and death, HIV/AIDS prevention and control management measures for developing the Guangdong provides a reliable basis.

Citation Download Citation

Zhiqin Zhao and Sui-Zhi He "Prediction of AIDS incidence based on grey model in Guangdong Province", Proc. SPIE 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022), 122592Q (17 May 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2639304

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