RainCube (Radar in a CubeSat) and TEMPEST-D (Temporal Experiment for Storms and Tropical Systems - Demonstration) demonstrated in 2018 that deployment of active and passive microwave sensors to monitor storms and precipitation from space is possible on platforms as small as 6U CubeSats. Despite their implementation as high-risk technology demonstrations, with very low budgets compared to their predecessors, they both survived more than two years in orbit (well beyond their commitments). These demonstrations opened the gates to satisfy several long-standing unmet needs by the scientific and operational weather and climate communities. Among them is the need to observe the evolution of the vertical structure of convective storms in the Tropics at the temporal scales relevant to convective processes (i.e., tens of seconds to few minutes) in order to advance our understanding of convective processes and the environmental conditions behind them via modeling and analysis. The INCUS (Investigation of Convective Updrafts) mission concept aims at addressing this need by deploying 3 small satellites each carrying an augmented version of the RainCube radar. One of the 3 small satellites also includes a millimeter wave radiometer inherited from TEMPEST-D. In this presentation we present the status of the INCUS project at the end of Phase A.
RainCube (Radar in a CubeSat) is a technology demonstration mission to enable Ka-band precipitation radar technologies on a low-cost, quick-turnaround platform. The 6U CubeSat, features a Ka-band nadir pointing precipitation radar with a half-meter parabolic antenna. RainCube first observed rainfall over Mexico in August 2018 and in the following months captured the distinct structures of a variety of storms as well as characteristic signatures of Earth’s surface essential to diagnose pointing and calibration. In this presentation we will focus on the characteristics of the observed scenes, specifically to convey the potential, as well as the limitations, of a radar of this class in addressing the goal of observing weather processes from space.
Even though vertical motion is resolved within convection-permitting models, recent studies have demonstrated significant departures in predicted storm updrafts and downdrafts when compared with Doppler observations of the same events. Several previous studies have attributed these departures to shortfalls in the representation of microphysical processes, in particular those pertaining to ice processes. Others have suggested that our inabilities to properly represent processes such as entrainment are responsible. Wrapped up in these issues are aspects such as the model grid resolution, as well as accuracy of models to correctly simulate the environmental conditions. Four primary terms comprise the vertical momentum equation: advection, pressure gradient forcing, thermodynamics and turbulence. Microphysical processes including their impacts on latent heating and their contributions to condensate loading strongly impact the thermodynamic term. The focus of this study is on the thermodynamic contributions to vertical motion, the shortfalls that arise when modeling this term, and the observations that might be made to improve the representation of those thermodynamical processes driving convective updrafts and downdrafts.
Forecasting rapid intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) is hard as the factors responsible span many scales. External and internal dynamical and thermodynamical variables act simultaneously in a nonlinear fashion, either complementing, amplifying, inhibiting or not impacting the TC intensity at all. We try to address the following question: What is the relative importance of the external and vortex-scale variables that influence rapid intensity changes within a TC? Further, which of these variables must be prioritized from an observational standpoint? To answer these questions, a systematic analysis was conducted on a large number of representative TCs to make statistically significant conclusions using discriminant analyses of wavenumber (WN) - filtered fields, with a principal component analysis to detect over-fitting and identify the subset of variables (from the environment and the vortex) consistently correlated with rapid intensity change. Our analyses indicate that a small number of variables wield the most influence on TC rapid intensity changes. The most important variables within the vortex are the WN 0 of precipitation within the radius of maximum winds, the amplitudes of WN 1 of precipitation and the mid-level horizontal moisture flux convergence in the rain band region. Likewise, the most important environmental variables are the angle of the driest air from the shear vector and the magnitude of environmental wind shear. These variables must be prioritized in future observational and consequent data assimilation efforts.
In this paper we report the evidence of the potential role of diffluence in the 200hPa wind field off the coast of West Africa in the formation of a significant number of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes in the recent decade. It is shown that more than 80% cases of hurricanes at Category 4 and above is preceded by upper level diffluence in the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) by 0–5 days. This TEJ is the outflow from the southern flank of the Tibetan anticyclone from the Asian monsoon region.
Attempts to interpret the measurements of millimeter-wave radiometers over tropical storms must overcome the difficulty of modeling the scattering signatures of hydrometeors at these frequencies. Approaches to date try to retrieve surface precipitation, to which the observations are not directly sensitive. Millimeter wavelengths are most sensitive to the scattering from hydrometeors in the cloud upper levels. Millimeter-wavelength radiometers have a definite advantage over the lower frequency radiometers in that they have finer spatial resolution to resolve deep convection. Preliminary analyses indicate that the measurements are indeed sensitive to the depth and intensity of convection. The challenge is to derive a robust approach to estimate the characteristics of the convection directly from the observations, and conversely to derive a robust forward representation of the dependence of the radiances on the underlying moisture fields. This is done in a two-step semi-empirical approach.
Recent technological advances have enabled the miniaturization of microwave instruments (radars and radiometers) so they can fit on very small satellites, with enough capability to measure atmospheric temperature, water vapor and clouds. The miniaturization makes these systems inexpensive enough to allow scientists to contemplate placing several examples in low-Earth orbit concurrently, to observe atmospheric dynamics in clouds and storms. To identify the most important weather and climate problems that can be addressed with these new observations, and to develop corresponding observation strategies using these "distributed" systems, specific analyses were conducted and used to justify "distributed" measurement requirements and quantify their expected performance. This presentation will describe the types of convoys, the expected observations, and their applications.
This study examines the influence of Purdue-Lin microphysical parameterization scheme (Lin et al.,1983) on quantitative precipitation for pre-monsoon/monsoon conditions over southern peninsular India in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ideal microphysical scheme has to describe the formation, growth of cloud droplets and ice crystals and fall out as precipitation. Microphysics schemes can be broadly categorized into two types: bin and bulk particle size distribution (Morrison, 2010). Bulk schemes predict one or more bulk quantities and assume some functional form for the particle size distribution. For better parameterization, proper interpretation of these hydrometeors (Cloud Droplets, Raindrops, Ice Crystals and Aggregates, Rimed Ice Particles, Graupel, Hail) and non-hydrometeors (Aerosols vs. Condensation Nuclei vs. Cloud Condensation Nuclei vs. Ice Nuclei) is very important. The Purdue-Lin scheme is a commonly used microphysics scheme in WRF model utilizing the “bulk” particle size distribution, meaning that a particle size distribution is assumed. The intercept parameter (N0) is, in fact, turns out to be independent of the density. However, in situ observations suggest (Haddad et al., 1996, 1997) that the mass weighted mean diameter is correlated with water content per unit volume (q), leading to the fact that N0 depends on it. Here, in order to analyze the correlation of droplet size distribution with the convection, we have carried out simulations by implementing a consistent methodology to enforce a correlation between N0 and q in the Purdue-Lin microphysics scheme in WRF model. The effect of particles in Indian Summer Monsoon has been examined using frequency distribution of rainfall at surface, daily rainfall over the domain and convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. The simulations are conducted by analyzing the maximum rainfall days in the pre-monsoon/monsoon seasons using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) accumulated rainfall data for 24 hours.
Numerical climate and weather models depend on measurements from space-borne satellites to complete model validation and improvements. Precipitation profiling capabilities are currently limited to a few instruments deployed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), which cannot provide the temporal resolution necessary to observe the evo- lution of short time-scale weather phenomena and improve numerical weather prediction models. A constellation of cloud- and precipitation-profiling instruments in LEO would provide this essential capability, but the cost and timeframe of typical satellite platforms and instruments constitute a possibly prohibitive challenge. A new radar instrument architecture that is compatible with low-cost satellite platforms, such as CubeSats and SmallSats, has been designed at JPL. Its small size, moderate mass and low power requirement enable constellation missions, which will vastly expand our ability to observe weather systems and their dynamics and thermodynamics at sub-diurnal time scales down to the temporal resolutions required to observe developing convection. In turn, this expanded observational ability can revolutionize weather now-casting and medium-range forecasting, and enable crucial model improvements to improve climate predictions.
Few systematic attempts to interpret the measurements of mm-wave radiometers over clouds and precipitation have been made to date because the scattering signatures of hydrometeors at these frequencies are very difficult to model. The few algorithms that have been developed try to retrieve surface precipitation, to which the observations are partially correlated but not directly sensitive. In fact, over deep clouds, mm-wave radiometers are most sensitive to the scattering from solid hydrometeors within the upper levels of the cloud. In addition, mm-wave radiometers have a definite advantage over the lower-frequency window-channel radiometers in that they have finer resolution and can therefore explicitly resolve deep convection. Preliminary analyses (in particular of NOAA's MHS brightness temperatures, as well as Megha-Tropiques's SAPHIR observations) indicate that the measurements are indeed very sensitive to the depth and intensity of convection. The challenge is to derive a robust approach to make quantitative estimates of the convection, for example the height and depth of the condensed water, directly from the mm-wave observations, as a function of horizontal location. To avoid having to rely on a specific set of microphysical assumptions, this analysis exploits the substantial amount of nearly- simultaneous coincident observations by mm-wave radiometers and orbiting atmospheric profiling radars in order to enforce unbiased consistency between the calculated brightness temperatures and the radar and radiometer observations.
Satellite-based scatterometers, for historical reasons, have been used mainly to derive the wind forcing term for oceanography applications in the form of the near-surface wind field. However, the scatterometer is sensitive to the surface roughness, which is related to the wind stress field, which is in turn related to the wind field at the bottom of the troposphere but not just at 10 meters above the surface { indeed, in organized systems such as tropical cyclones, the surface roughness is highly correlated with the wind at altitudes much higher than 10 meters. We show how to assimilate this data as a function of the vertical principal components of the wind rather than the oversimplified alternative. We derive the empirical correlations between simulated scatterometer observations and underlying columns of wind produced by a numerical weather prediction model and derive an observation operator based on these correlations. We then present the results of the subsequent assimilation.
In this presentation we will discuss the performance of classification and retrieval algorithms for spaceborne cloud and
precipitation radars such as the Global Precipitation Measurement mission [1] Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar
(GPM/DPR) [2], and notional radar for the Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystem (ACE) [1] mission and related concepts.
Spaceborne radar measurements are simulated either from Airborne Precipitation Radar 2nd Generation (APR-2, [3]) observations, or from atmospheric model outputs via instrument simulators contained in the NASA Earth Observing
Systems Simulators Suite (NEOS3). Both methods account for the three dimensional nature of the scattering field at resolutions smaller than that of the spaceborne radar under consideration. We will focus on the impact of nonhomogeneities of the field of hydrometeors within the beam. We will discuss also the performance of methods to identify
and mitigate such conditions, and the resulting improvements in retrieval accuracy. The classification and retrieval
algorithms analyzed in this study are those derived from APR-2’s Suite of Processing and Retrieval Algorithms
(ASPRA); here generalized to operate on an arbitrary set of radar configuration parameters to study the expected
performance of spaceborne cloud and precipitation radars. The presentation will highlight which findings extend to other
algorithm families and which ones do not.
Several methods have been proposed to train microwave radiometers to retrieve precipitation rates estimated by a radar
which observed the same location at the same time. These radar-trained passive-microwave algorithms differ in the
quantities that are estimated: some estimate the vertically-integrated liquid water, while others estimate the near-surface
precipitation. Since it is no more or less credible to estimate the rain rate at the surface than it is to estimate the rain rate
at any discrete altitude, it is particularly interesting to quantify the accuracy with which vertical profiles of precipitation
can be estimated from a passive microwave radiometer, what the obstacles are, and what vertical resolution would be
achievable. To that end, we conducted several studies to 1) establish that the main impediment to the vertical profiling is
the unknown signature of the sea surface in the non-precipitating portions of the field of view, and 2) use surfaceinsensitive
principal components of the brightness temperatures to retrieve the vertical principal components of the
precipitation. We report on the results of our studies in the case of mid-latitudes regions, in the case of the Atlantic Inter-
Tropical Convergence Zone during May 2009 where we produced unique estimates that quantify the vertical structure of
the convection in which flight AF447 disappeared, and in the case of polar precipitation where the dearth of instruments
and the radiometrically cold frozen surface present additional challenges.
One of the most important problems in non-convection-resolving atmospheric circulation models is cumulus parametrization,
i.e. the problem of determining, from the model's coarse-scale state variables, the triggering, vertical distribution
and time scale of convective kinetic energy dissipation. One way to derive an empirically-verified parametrization
scheme is to use intensive four-dimensional observations of tropical precipitation to compile the statistics of the joint
behavior of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) on one hand and the resulting four-dimensional latent
heating on the other hand. While tracking CAPE requires frequent soundings, tracking the latent heating is much
harder because it requires frequent estimates of the vertical structure of precipitation: the latter can only be estimated
from microwave remote sensing, which is only available in the form of infrequent (at best six-hourly) snapshots
from low-Earth-orbiting satellites. The approach proposed in this paper seeks to remedy this problem by combining
geo-stationary IR observations with a simplified vertical evolution model to fill-in the vast gaps in the microwave
observations. The results will help in developing empirically verified convective parametrization schemes for use in
large-scale atmospheric models, and in producing fine temporal-scale precipitation estimates which can be directly
assimilated.
Recent improvements in a method for remotely sensing precipitation and latent heating distributions based upon satellite-borne, passive microwave radiometer observations are summarized. In applications to synthetic data, estimated rainfall rates at sensor footprint-scale (14 km) are subject to significant random errors, but these errors are substantially reduced by spatial averaging. After spatial-averaging, rain rate and latent heating profile estimates exhibit biases that arise from a lack of specificity in the information contained in the microwave radiance data.
The retrieval method is applied to observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Radiometer (TMI). Retrieved instantaneous precipitation and heating distributions show general self-consistency and delineate plausible storm structures in an application to TMI observations of a mesoscale convective system over the tropical North Atlantic. Well-known climatological distributions of rainfall are reproduced by global, monthly-mean TMI precipitation estimates from July 2000. Zonal-mean heating profiles in the Tropics from the same period exhibit a primary maximum of heating near 7 km altitude and a secondary peak near 3 km, while at higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, a vertical structure with heating aloft and cooling at lower altitudes is derived.
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