According to the LeBaron effect, serial correlation is low when volatility is high and vice-versa. We show that
it is true only for the predictable part of the volatility, while volatility which cannot be forecasted is positively
linked to serial correlation. Since the mechanism of price formation can be very different in small and large
markets we investigate the effect of volatility on intraday serial correlation in Italy (a small market) and U.S. (a
large market). We find substantial differences in the impact of volatility in the two markets.
We study the serial correlation of high-frequency intraday returns on the Italian stock index futures (FIB30) in the period 2000-2002. We adopt three different methods of analysis: the spectral density via Fast Fourier Transform, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and the Variance Ratio test. We find that intraday autocorrelation is mostly negative for time scales lower than 20 minutes, but we support the efficiency of the Italian futures market.
Access to the requested content is limited to institutions that have purchased or subscribe to SPIE eBooks.
You are receiving this notice because your organization may not have SPIE eBooks access.*
*Shibboleth/Open Athens users─please
sign in
to access your institution's subscriptions.
To obtain this item, you may purchase the complete book in print or electronic format on
SPIE.org.
INSTITUTIONAL Select your institution to access the SPIE Digital Library.
PERSONAL Sign in with your SPIE account to access your personal subscriptions or to use specific features such as save to my library, sign up for alerts, save searches, etc.