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This study focused on determining the past changes and predicting the future trends in eutrophication of the Bolgoda North lake, Sri Lanka using in situ Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) measurements and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data. This Lake is located in a mixed land use area with industries, some agricultural lands, middle income and high income housing, tourist hotels and low income housing. From March to October 2013, water samples from five sampling sites were collected once a month parallel to ASTER overpass and Chl-a, nitrate and phosphate contents of each sample were measured using standard laboratory methods. Cloud-free ASTER scenes over the lake during the 2000-2013 periods were acquired for Chl-a estimation and trend analysis. All ASTER images were atmospherically corrected using FLAASH software and in-situ Chl-a data were regressed with atmospherically corrected three ASTER VNIR band ratios of the same date. The regression equation of the band ratio and Chl-a content with the highest correlation, which was the green/red band ratio was used to develop algorithm for generation of 15-m resolution Chl-a distribution maps. According to the ASTER based Chl-a distribution maps it was evident that eutrophication of this lake has gradually increased from 2008-2011. Results also indicated that there had been significantly high eutrophic conditions throughout the year 2013 in several regions, especially in water stagnant areas and adjacent to freshwater outlets. Field observations showed that this lake is receiving various discharges from factories. Unplanned urbanization and inadequacy of proper facilities in the nearby industries for waste management have resulted in the eutrophication of the water body. If the present trends of waste disposal and unplanned urbanization continue, enormous environmental problems would be resulted in future. Results of the present study showed that information from satellite remote sensing can play a useful role in the development of time series Chl-a distribution maps. Such information is important for the future predictions, development and management of this area as well as in the conservation of this water body.
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