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In the present age, the continuous emission of greenhouse gases and the increasing content of carbon dioxide have led to a series of problems such as global warming. This could cause sea levels to rise, glaciers to melt, the cold season to shorten, and so on. To help mitigate the effects of global warming caused by carbon dioxide emissions we, predicted the changes and analyzed past data of the concentration of carbon dioxide. In order to reach this target, we built disparate models to forecast future changes in carbon dioxide and temperature to better analyze the impact of CO2 in the future.
Before we started to develop our models, we analyzed the data from the list given. We used the first-order difference of all the data to find out the increase of the Cco2 (concentration of co2) every 1 and 10 years. Subsequently, we compared increasing concentration and got the final result. Then, we identified the relevant objectives that are needed to be aim for during the process. First, make the model express data that coincides with the past data, and justify that the model is correct in describing decades of data. Second, make the model obtain optimal, stable, and development-compliant projected future data.
During the progress of modelling, we built two models to study the change of concentration of carbon dioxide. In the first model, we assumed the relation of Cco2 is a quadratic function from the collected information. After preliminary modeling, we improved the model, we chose some more regular data to ensure fitting accuracy and built our first model. In the second model, we used a differential equation because we found that the residues of the data are fit to use it.
To conclude what is stated above, we focused on analyzing and predicting the variation of concentration of CO2 from 1959 till 2100 two times by using different methods. In our prediction, we anticipated that in 2050, about 507 ppm of CO2 would be produced. We also predict that the temp will increase by 2 degrees in 2052, which is a warning line set by scientists[1], and if the temp exceeds this value it will have a huge impact. We found out that the increasing rate appears with a positive acceleration though time changes, bought up negative affects not only in environment but also in temperature and other factors like sea level.
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