Trend analysis and prediction of heritage crime in China using prophet model

Yiming Zhai; Hongyu Lv; Ning Ding

doi:10.1117/12.2656758

13 January 2023 Trend analysis and prediction of heritage crime in China using prophet model

Yiming Zhai, Hongyu Lv, Ning Ding

Proceedings Volume 12510, International Conference on Statistics, Data Science, and Computational Intelligence (CSDSCI 2022); 1251019 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2656758
Event: International Conference on Statistics, Data Science, and Computational Intelligence (CSDSCI 2022), 2022, Qingdao, China

Abstract

Cultural Heritage is a witness to human history, and its preservation has become a worldwide consensus. However, heritage crime is still rampant, and the protection of cultural heritages still needs excellent efforts. This paper analyzes the crime pattern of cultural heritage from the time series perspective and proposes a targeted early warning framework. The trends of the four heritage crime types were summarized on weekly, monthly, annual and decadal time scales. The upstream and downstream heritage crimes were strongly correlated on the daily time scale, with 90% of years correlated on the scale of 0.01. For different provinces and different types of cultural heritage crimes, a comprehensive early warning model framework is established using a combination of Prophet model prediction and qualitative analysis, and the optimal prediction horizon is given. The analysis results of this paper provide a viable path for applying heritage data to conservation work. It helps to prevent and control heritage crimes and provides ideas for the information construction of heritage security.

Citation Download Citation

Yiming Zhai, Hongyu Lv, and Ning Ding "Trend analysis and prediction of heritage crime in China using prophet model", Proc. SPIE 12510, International Conference on Statistics, Data Science, and Computational Intelligence (CSDSCI 2022), 1251019 (13 January 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2656758

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