Mathematical modeling of HBV transmission and the effect of booster shots

Elena Gai Wang

doi:10.1117/12.2639076

17 May 2022 Mathematical modeling of HBV transmission and the effect of booster shots

Elena Gai Wang

Proceedings Volume 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022); 122591V (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2639076
Event: 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing, 2022, Kunming, China

Abstract

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a global health threat, with around 800,000 HBV-related deaths each year. Vaccination is currently available, and it is recommended to all newborns by the WHO. However, there is a possibility that the vaccination-induced protection might not be lifelong as antibody levels do wane over time. This paper builds upon a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR)-type HBV transmission model, adding the effects of waning of the immunity. The mathematical model is then simulated through Matlab. Both steady state solution and computer simulation show that a shorter duration of vaccination-induced protection could lead to a significantly higher prevalence of susceptible, specifically from 15.00% for lifelong protection to 82.16% for 20-year protection. A larger susceptible population, in turn, will result in a higher number of acute cases and new chronic cases. Furthermore, the analysis of booster shot effects on the number of newly infected suggests that implementing a boosting strategy could be beneficial.

Citation Download Citation

Elena Gai Wang "Mathematical modeling of HBV transmission and the effect of booster shots", Proc. SPIE 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022), 122591V (17 May 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2639076

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